Posting a 25.5-win over/under after trading a two-time MVP to Miami looks like an invitation to bet the tank, until you inspect the draft pick ledger through the end of the decade. After finishing 32-50 and 11th in the Eastern Conference last season, the Milwaukee Bucks sent Giannis Antetokounmpo to South Beach, parted ways with Doc Rivers as he headed to the NBC broadcast booth, and handed the clipboard to Taylor Jenkins. My read on the roster math and the structural incentives is clear: Milwaukee lacks full control over its own upcoming first-rounders, which means Jenkins is coaching to build functional half-court habits right now rather than engineering a bottom-out tank.
Look at the pieces that came back from the Heat alongside the two lottery selections. Milwaukee absorbed Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, and Kasparas Jakucionis, then paired them with No. 10 overall pick Brayden Burries and No. 13 overall pick Nate Ament. Oddsmakers have priced the Bucks at 100/1 to win the Central Division, 500/1 to take the Eastern Conference, and 1000/1 to win the NBA Finals, with the over 25.5 wins sitting at -120 and the under at -105. Those numbers reflect a roster transitioning away from a 13-year superstar era, yet the schematic DNA on the floor points toward competitive developmental basketball rather than intentional losing.
Why the Pick-and-Roll Math Demands Brayden Burries on the Ball
For a decade, Milwaukee’s late-game offensive efficiency relied on Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton generating paint touches and high-value kick-outs. With both gone, the preseason tape against the Oklahoma City Thunder exposed an immediate tactical problem when defenses load up on the perimeter. Sports Illustrated’s Tre Allen argued that Herro should be the primary late-game closer, noting, “When it comes to experience and skill set, I believe Tyler Herro makes the most sense.” Allen pointed to Herro’s history of hitting multiple game-winners and playing on the NBA Finals stage as the basis for keeping the ball in his hands down the stretch.
That veteran hierarchy breaks down once opposing point-of-attack defenders blitz or top-lock Herro off the bounce. As Allen’s own preseason breakdown noted, constant defensive pressure denied Herro airspace as a primary shot creator and forced him into catch-and-shoot actions instead. Meanwhile, the rookie Burries poured in 12 fourth-quarter points during that preseason win over Oklahoma City, operating cleanly across all three levels.
If I am running Milwaukee’s analytics department, I am shifting Herro into off-ball movement sets to maximize his true shooting percentage on pin-downs and relocation threes while handing the primary pick-and-roll keys to Burries and Jakucionis. Jenkins built his Memphis offenses before his March 2025 firing around high-pace drive-and-kick volume and early-clock rim pressure. Running high ball screens with Burries and Jakucionis initiating and Ware rolling to the rim forces opposing bigs out of comfortable drop coverage, creating the weak-side rotation windows that Jaquez can attack on second-side drives.
Nate Ament’s Usage Rate Carries the Franchise Ceiling
While guard play dictates whether Milwaukee clears 25.5 wins this spring, the franchise’s long-term net rating and value over replacement player ceiling rest on a nearly seven-foot prospect from Tennessee. Ament entered college as one of the premier high school prospects in the country before an uneven freshman season dropped him to No. 13 in the draft. With 14 players under contract and veteran center Myles Turner anchoring the frontcourt rotation, the temptation for a new coaching staff is to hide a raw rookie in the dunker spot or limit him to spot-up corner reps.
That approach would waste the exact leverage Milwaukee needs to recover from trading a generational superstar for less than peak market value. Because the Bucks face a draft pick deficit through the end of the decade and lottery reform flattens the odds at the bottom of the standings anyway, internal player development is their only reliable path to high-end expected value.
* **Primary Initiation:** Give Burries and Jakucionis live on-ball creation reps against starting NBA defensive shells to test their assist-to-turnover ratios under duress.
* **Frontcourt Spacing:** Pair Ament with Turner or Ware in two-big lineups where Turner’s floor spacing protects the paint on defense while giving Ament room to operate as a secondary ball-handler in transition and early offense.
* **Clutch Shot Distribution:** Use Herro’s gravity as a decoy in late-clock actions to free Burries for downhill mismatches rather than forcing contested isolation jumpers against set half-court defenses.
My projection has Milwaukee pushing past that 25.5-win mark at -120 because Jenkins knows how to organize a regular-season rotation and the roster has enough NBA-ready depth from the Miami trade to punish tanking teams. Still, the scoreboard in November and December matters far less than the usage distribution on the stat sheet… and whether Jenkins gives Ament the fourth-quarter touches over the next 82 games to turn raw seven-foot upside into a true franchise cornerstone.
