The confetti was still stuck to the TD Ameritrade turf when the industry started casting the 2027 sequel. Oklahoma had just finished stomping North Carolina 13-2 for the title, and before anyone could process a third Sooners championship, Baseball America and D1Baseball dropped their Way Too Early Omaha Eights like they were reading the next season’s spoiler list out loud.
I felt it in my gut the second I scrolled the names. Not surprise. Recognition. This is college baseball doing what it always does in July: pretending the portal, the arms, and the blue-blood pipelines already decided June while the rest of us are still hungover from the finals.
D1Baseball’s eleven writers put Mississippi State on ten personal Eights. Ten. LSU took nine. Texas and North Carolina landed seven apiece. Auburn six. Then the real noise started: Southern Miss on four ballots, the defending champs Oklahoma on only four, and outliers like Ohio State and Little Rock sneaking onto a single card. Baseball America went cleaner and alphabetical: LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri State, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia. Missouri State sitting there in the middle of the blue bloods like it had already punched its ticket through the portal and the Missouri Valley.
That is not a projection list. That is a power map with the serial numbers filed off.
LSU’s Redemption Arc Was Pre-Written in Odd Years
Monty Taylor said the quiet part on his Substack before anyone else posted: “Since being hired ahead of the 2022 season, Jay Johnson has taken LSU to Omaha and won the National Championship every other year— 2023 and 2025. If that trend holds, expect LSU to do the same in 2027.” I read that and laughed out loud because it is ridiculous and also completely fair. LSU missed the 2026 tournament entirely, first time since 2011, first miss for Johnson since his Arizona days. The Tigers opened last season as a top contender and face-planted. Now they sit near the top of every early Eight like the miss never happened.
Baseball America’s Jacob Rudner did not even flinch. “Roll your eyes at the pick if you must, but a July Eight for Omaha is precisely the place for a straightforward judgment of talent. By that measure, there is little doubt LSU belongs.” He is right. Talent is the only currency that survives July. The rest is narrative. LSU’s narrative right now is the wounded blue blood that reloads harder than anyone else, and the industry just handed them the redemption monologue before the first bullpen session of the fall.
Mississippi State is the other half of that story. An MLB scouting director sat next to a BA writer during an ACC series in March, tapped him, and asked—half-joking—whether he should buy season tickets for 2027. That is the kind of whisper that becomes gospel by the time the leaves change. Brian O’Connor’s first year ended one round short of Omaha. The arms are coming. The industry already bought the tickets.
The Mid-Major Slot Is Where the Lists Get Honest or Get Soft
Taylor admitted what every honest person knows: “One of the things I hate about Way-to-Early Omaha Eights is that we know there will almost certainly be a surprise mid-major making a run in June. Nobody picked Oral Roberts (2023), Murray State (2025), or Troy (2026) in their Omaha Eights.” He left his eighth spot open on purpose. Baseball America did not. They put Missouri State in the actual Eight. D1Baseball’s staff sprinkled Southern Miss across four ballots and watched the Baseburg faithful lose their minds in the best way.
Josh House over at SI caught the temperature perfectly: “When four of the country’s top college baseball analysts believe Southern Miss has what it takes to reach Omaha, people should take notice, and for good reason.” Southern Miss has not been to Omaha since 2009. One appearance. Ever. Yet four serious writers looked at the roster construction and the coaching continuity and decided the Golden Eagles belong in the conversation before Labor Day. That is either sharp or reckless. I am leaning sharp. The mid-major that actually gets named is the one that forces the SEC-and-ACC cartel to look over its shoulder. Missouri State on BA’s list does the same job. It is the industry admitting the sport is better when someone crashes the party who was not invited to the preseason cocktail hour.
The snubs are already starting the fights that will last until Selection Monday. Oklahoma wins the whole thing in June and lands on only four D1Baseball ballots. Tennessee makes BA’s Eight and receives limited support from the D1 staff. Virginia keeps showing up because the model still trusts the program even when the results wobble. These are not neutral lists. They are loyalty tests dressed up as analysis.
I keep coming back to Taylor’s opening confession: “I normally detest doing way-too-early Omaha predictions, as it’s impossible to know who the hot teams are going to be nearly a year in advance– but that’s the fun, isn’t it?” Exactly. The fun is watching the industry tell on itself. Mississippi State owns July because the arms are real. LSU owns the odd-year script because Jay Johnson has already proven the pattern. Missouri State and Southern Miss own the honesty test because somebody had to put a non-power name on paper and mean it.
The 2027 field will look different when the leaves turn and the portal closes and some Friday night starter blows out in March. I know that. You know that. The lists still matter because they show you who the decision-makers already believe has the talent and the infrastructure to survive the chaos. Right now that belief runs through Starkville, Baton Rouge, and a couple of mid-major programs that refused to wait for permission. The soap opera already has its first act. I am here for every betrayal and every redemption that follows.
