Four singles in a row turned a 4-2 lead into a 4-4 tie before Edwin Díaz even recorded his second out, and the boos at Dodger Stadium told you exactly where the temperature sits. I watched the sequence back twice. Fastballs over the heart to Joey Ortiz and David Hamilton. Sliders that never finished to Jackson Chourio and Garrett Mitchell. Then Alex Vesia comes in and Jake Bauers ends it. Another blown save. Third in four appearances. Dodgers drop to 73-49 and sit two games behind Milwaukee for the NL’s best record.
Dave Roberts is sticking with him anyway. I think he’s right, and not because of some soft loyalty pitch. The math of this bullpen and this contract leaves him almost no clean alternative that doesn’t create a worse problem in September.
The $69 Million Bet Bought a Rehab Project
Díaz is on a three-year, $69 million deal the Dodgers handed him after he opted out of New York. What they actually acquired is a high-leverage arm still climbing out of arthroscopic elbow surgery that cost him roughly three months. He last pitched April 19 before the IL. He returned late July. Since then: eight runs in 5 2/3 innings, a 12.71 ERA, 12 hits. Season line through Thursday sits at 11.57 ERA over 11.2 innings, 21 hits, 2.49 WHIP, six saves.
That is not a closer in form. That is a post-surgical arm whose fastball sat 96.5 mph Thursday, down from 97.2 a year ago, and whose command has collapsed into the middle of the zone. Díaz said it clean after the game: “I think my fastball command today — I was throwing strikes, but right in the middle. Every big league hitter can hit it right in the middle, [even if you] throw 200 miles an hour.”
He’s not wrong. The stuff still flashes. The location does not. When the heater lives middle-middle, the slider becomes a show-me pitch instead of a chase pitch. Hitters sit and punish. That is mechanism, not narrative. Loose bodies come out of an elbow and the feel for the edges of the zone often lags the radar gun by weeks or months. Roberts framed it the same way: there is a runway required, and right now Díaz is still on it.
Roberts Isn’t Stubborn. The Pen Is Thin.
The postgame pushback from Roberts was the most honest part of the night. “Who’s the other option?” he asked. “You look back at the last week, and guys have struggled. … Everyone’s got a role, they all have jobs to do, and they all have to do their job. That’s it.”
Then the sharper line: “I have to have other options, and to be quite honest, none of those guys really are throwing the baseball great.” And: “We’ve got to get other guys on track to even have that be even a valid conversation.”
I buy the diagnosis more than the comfort. Tanner Scott owns a 2.25 ERA and 16 saves on the season. Alex Vesia sits at 2.79. Those are not zero options on paper. But Roberts is describing recent form, not season-long residuals, and he is describing a staff that has already burned through five leverage arms in one loss. Chasing the hot hand every time Díaz coughs one up turns the ninth into a carousel. Carousels destroy leverage roles, destroy pitch sequencing, and usually destroy October bullpens faster than one expensive closer working through command issues.
The comparative frame is simple. Contenders that panic-demote pedigree closers mid-slump rarely find a cleaner ninth-inning answer; they just redistribute the same contact problems across more arms. Contenders that give a post-injury arm with Díaz’s track record a defined runway sometimes get the version that shows up in October. Roberts is betting on the second path because the first path requires a better Plan B than he currently trusts.
Díaz knows the temperature. “It’s frustrating because I know my ability. I know what I can do on the mound. To not be able to do it sucks. I’ve just got to come tomorrow and try to keep getting better.” And: “I’ve been in this position before, and I’ve been able to find a way to get better.” That is not empty bravado. That is a three-time All-Star describing the only process that has ever fixed him: sit with the coaches, locate the miss, work.
August Runway Is Expensive When Milwaukee Is Right There
Here is the real cost. Every blown save in August against a club you are chasing for seeding is a game you may not get back. Roberts called it what it was: “A loss is a loss, but there’s certain losses that are more costly.” The Brewers left town with the better record. The Dodgers used the entire high-leverage group and still lost.
I still take Roberts’ side of the binary. Demoting Díaz now does not install a proven ninth-inning arm with better recent stuff. It installs uncertainty and tells the rest of the pen the roles are fluid. Fluid roles in August are how you arrive in October with nobody trusted for six-out saves. The better play is the one Roberts described: keep the job defined, fix the fastball command, and force the other arms to get right in lower leverage so a real conversation becomes possible.
If the middle-middle heaters continue for another week, the conversation changes. Right now the data says the Dodgers bought a closer still finishing his rehab in public, the rest of the pen is not throwing well enough to steal the job cleanly, and the only move that does not make the leverage structure worse is the one that looks stubborn from the outside. Stick with him. Make him earn the next month. The alternative is a carousel that has already started spinning.
