Three decades of NFL general managers convincing themselves that a wide receiver cannot go first overall ends the second Jeremiah Smith walks onto the stage in 2027. Since 1996, thirty straight teams holding the top pick have treated the draft board like a sacred three-item menu of quarterbacks, edge rushers, and offensive tackles. Looking at what the 6-foot-4, 222-pound Ohio State junior is doing to defensive backfields right now makes that thirty-year streak look like pure front-office cowardice.
Through seven games in 2026, Smith has hauled in 52 receptions for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns, sitting second in the nation in both yardage and scores while averaging 18.9 yards per catch. He has dropped one pass all season and only six across his entire three-year college run. When a player forces defensive coordinators to roll bracket coverage over the top and still wins 15 contested catches, tied for second in the country, positional value spreadsheets belong in the shredder.
“Double-teams, triple-teams … it doesn’t matter what coverage a defense throws at him,” ESPN NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid wrote while slotting Smith as his No. 1 overall player. “Smith continues to have a consistent impact every week.”
I rank NFL front-office delusions obsessively, and passing on a walk-in alpha X receiver to overdraft a developmental tackle sits right at the top of my Levels of Draft Room Self-Sabotage. It reminds me of Walter White in *Breaking Bad* staring at a pristine, multimillion-dollar lab and blowing it up because his ego demanded he run the whole operation his own way. General managers get so intoxicated by the idea of finding a franchise savior under center or on the blind side that they talk themselves out of the surest blue-chip talent in the building.
Why the Six-Receiver Ohio State Factory Argument Misses the Mark
Columbus has turned into an assembly line for first-round pass catchers, producing six in the past six drafts: Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in 2021, Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2023, Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2024, Emeka Egbuka at No. 19 in 2025, and Carnell Tate at No. 4 in 2026. Walking into a room with Egbuka and Tate as a true freshman in 2024, Smith still led the Buckeyes with 76 catches, 1,315 yards, and 15 touchdowns. He already owns Ohio State’s career records for receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns before finishing his junior campaign.
“I think he’s the best receiver we’ve seen at that level, with all his ability and his talent,” Wilson told ESPN. “He’s been league-ready since Year 1. … He’s unbelievable.”
Hearing that from a former Buckeye star is one thing, while seeing Smith-Njigba, the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year, co-sign Smith as the best of the bunch settles the debate entirely. DraftKings has Smith sitting as the Heisman Trophy front-runner at plus-122, positioning him to become the first wideout since Alabama’s DeVonta Smith in 2020 to take home the hardware. When I talk to my kids about why certain college players look like varsity athletes playing against seventh graders, Smith’s catch-point violence is the exact tape to point toward.
How Route Pacing Defeats the Positional Value Dogma
Traditional NFL roster builders argue that spending the No. 1 pick on a wideout ignores positional scarcity. Even Scouting Grade, which projects Smith as its No. 1 overall player, notes that his final draft slot still hinges on team needs and quarterback demand and that he can still refine beating a hard jam at the line without losing timing. That case falls apart when you look at how Smith’s route pacing and 6-foot-4 frame dictate defensive geometry even when a scheme sells out to erase him. Indiana threw everything it had at Smith to limit his volume, holding him to four catches for 68 yards, yet he still broke the game open by hauling in a 38-yard fourth-down touchdown.
Forcing a defensive coordinator to commit a boundary corner to a hard press jam while rolling a high safety over the top leaves the rest of the field in single coverage with light boxes. Even if an NFL cornerback gets hands on Smith at the line of scrimmage, his catch-point strength and three drops on 166 catchable targets across 2024 and 2025 per PFF mean a quarterback can throw him open into tight windows. A receiver who changes the math of a two-high safety shell on every snap impacts an offense’s floor just as much as a left tackle.
Mock drafts from CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Texans Wire are already projecting franchises like the Dolphins, Chargers, and Texans to pounce on Smith at the top of the 2027 board, even with Arch Manning lurking in the same cycle. Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC, No. 2 Ohio State walks into the Coliseum to face USC under the national spotlight. Another multi-touchdown eruption in Los Angeles will leave the worst team in the NFL with zero excuses left to pass on making history in April.
