I’m done. I’m absolutely, unequivocally done with the soft takes, the lukewarm takes, and the “well, *statistically speaking*” garbage that passes for analysis these days. My phone is blowing up with “L” energy from every corner of the internet, my Triple-A betting column got cooked worse than a two-dollar steak last week, and I’m sitting here watching these so-called “experts” hand out Stanley Cups three years in advance like they’re participation trophies. I’m in a slump, and frankly, I’m PISSED. My editor, bless his patient soul, told me, “Ryan, you need to land something, anything, that isn’t instantly quote-tweeted into oblivion with ‘Ratio’ comments.”
So I’m swinging for the fences. This isn’t a column; it’s a manifesto. It’s a declaration of war on conventional wisdom, especially when it comes to “way-too-early” predictions that are about as accurate as my uncle’s bracket after the first weekend.
And what’s the latest piece of internet pulp I’m supposed to pretend is insightful? Some anonymous jabroni dropping “Way-Too-Early Big 12 Basketball Tiers” for 2026-27. Brother, we haven’t even crowned a champ for *this* year, and you’re out here divvying up future national titles like they’re Halloween candy. Get outta here with that nonsense.
But you know what? It actually triggered something in me. Something primal. Because this isn’t just a bad take; it’s emblematic of everything wrong with sports coverage right now. It glosses over the seismic shifts, the earth-shattering reality of college hoops, and pretends we can just plug-and-play like it’s a video game.
The source starts by saying it was a “weird offseason in Big 12 country as a ton of top-level, proven talent chose to leave the conference via the transfer portal.”
“Weird offseason”? “Weird”? Is that what we’re calling it now? My dude, the Big 12 got absolutely GUTTED. Eight of their top-30 scorers dipped out to rival high-major leagues. That’s not weird, that’s a damn prison break. That’s a mass exodus that would make Moses blush. We’re talking about proven production, guys who had dawg in them, packing their bags faster than you can say “NIL collective.”
Flory Bidunga, Kansas’s supposed future king, is out at Louisville on a “monster deal.” Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State’s bucket-getter, chose desperate Kentucky. Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou is chilling at St. John’s. And Texas, in true Texas fashion, just poached TCU’s David Punch and Colorado’s Isaiah Johnson like they were buying groceries.
“Proven production in the Big 12 is a bit harder to find in 2026-27,” the source states. A bit harder? It’s like finding a needle in a haystack where the needle is made of pure unobtanium and the haystack is on fire. This isn’t just a talent drain; it’s a full-on talent *drought*. The league got nerfed, plain and simple.
I know what you’re about to type in the comments. “But Ryan, the depth! The source says the depth of the league will be there!”
Oh, the *depth* will be there, will it? Like the depth of a kiddie pool compared to the Pacific Ocean. You lose your top-tier talent, the guys who carry your offense, the guys who make clutch plays, and you think “depth” is going to magically conjure up a national title contender? That’s L energy, my friends. That’s the energy of someone who thinks participation trophies build champions.
Bill Self, the guy who actually *wins* in this league, has been screaming about this for years. He’s seen the writing on the wall. “The landscape is completely different,” Self said back in 2022, “and if you don’t adjust, you’re going to get left behind.” He wasn’t wrong then, and he’s even more right now. These kids are free agents, and loyalty is a concept as outdated as a dial-up modem. You want to talk about “weird offseason”? This is the *new normal*, baby. Get used to it. The NIL bag is king, and these players are chasing it. Can you blame them? Absolutely not. But don’t tell me it doesn’t change the competitive landscape for a whole damn conference.
Now, let’s dive into these “tiers” that are supposed to contextualize everything.
**Tier 1: National Title Contenders**
**1. Arizona**
*Projected 2026-27 starting lineup: G Derek Dixon (UNC transfer), G Caleb Holt, Wing Cameron Holmes, Wing Ivan Kharchenkov, C Motiejus Krivas.*
The source drops this gem: “It’s hard to see how Arizona is not an excellent defensive team.”
“Hard to see”? What are you, blind? I see a team that lost Jaden Bradley, a guy who actually provided steady leadership, and is now running with a bunch of young guards. Dixon, Holt, Mandaquit—yeah, they’re talented. But “too high-feel to fail”? “Too smart and too good a shooter to fail”? “Too big, too strong, too physical to fail”? Bro, I’ve seen more “can’t-fail” prospects crash and burn than a TikTok trend. This ain’t 2K where you just stack 5-star ratings and hit simulate. These are human beings, and they’re going to face some grown-ass men in the Big 12.
The source is glazing over the fact that “excellent defensive team” is a *projection* based on individual talent, not a guarantee. You know what makes an excellent defensive team? Cohesion. Communication. Relentless effort, night in and night out, against the most physical league in America. You think a bunch of freshmen and sophomores are just going to waltz in and lock down the Big 12? That’s some serious copium.
Motiejus Krivas, a 7-foot-2 mountain, is supposed to be the Big 12 Player of the Year. “Since he won’t have to share the sugar with Koa Peat and Tobe Awaka.” Oh, so because the *other* talented bigs left, Krivas automatically gets the crown? That’s like saying if all the other rappers quit, I’d automatically be the best MC. That ain’t how it works. Krivas is good, no doubt. But POY? That’s a massive reach for a guy who, while physically imposing, still needs to prove he can dominate consistently against top-tier competition when he’s the *only* option. The target on his back will be bigger than his shoe size.
And the “hellacious transition attack” fueled by Washington transfer JJ Mandaquit? Sure, pace is great. But pace without precision is just controlled chaos. Tommy Lloyd runs a good system, I’ll give him that. He’s a smart coach. He wants to play “fast, free, and physical,” as he’s said many times since arriving in Tucson. But expecting a squad, even one with this much raw talent, to jump straight to “national title contender” when they’re so young and reliant on transfers, is just wishful thinking. They’re good, absolutely. But Tier 1, “cut and dry”? Nah, that’s not hitting for me. That’s L energy for a team that has to prove it against a league that might be depleted at the top, but will still be a dogfight every single night.
**Tier 2: Top 25 Caliber Club**
**2. Houston**
*Projected 2026-27 starting lineup: G Dedan Thomas Jr. (LSU transfer), G Mercy Miller, G Chase McCarty, F Delrecco Gillespie (Kent State transfer), F JoJo Tugler.*
Okay, now we’re talking. Houston, a “Top 25 caliber club.” Only Tier 2? This is where I start to see the bias. This is where I see the traditional media brain rot. They see “mass exits” and they think *everyone* is vulnerable.
But this is Kelvin Sampson’s Houston we’re talking about. This isn’t some fair-weather program that wilts when the stars leave. This is a program built on concrete, on grit, on a philosophy that makes players want to run through a brick wall. Sampson doesn’t recruit talent; he recruits *dawgs*. He recruits guys who buy into his system.
“We’re not going to be cute,” Sampson has famously said. “We’re going to play hard, defend, and rebound.” That’s the mantra. That’s the culture. And you think a few transfers are going to derail that? Dedan Thomas Jr. and Delrecco Gillespie might be new faces, but they’re plugging into a system that has proven, time and time again, that it can churn out elite defensive teams and brutal physicality regardless of who’s on the roster. JoJo Tugler? That dude has dawg in him. He’s going to be a monster.
Houston went 30-7 last year, 14-4 in the Big 12, and made the Sweet 16. That’s with a different roster, yes, but the *identity* is immutable. This isn’t a team that gets their aura nerfed by player movement. This is a program that *imposes* its aura on everyone else. You think Kelvin Sampson is sitting around crying about the portal? Nah, he’s already got the next wave of gladiators ready to unleash.
I’m not saying Houston is going to be flawless. No team is. But to put them in Tier 2, behind an Arizona team that is relying on a bunch of young, unproven talent to immediately gel into a “cut and dry” national contender? That’s wild. Houston’s floor is higher than most teams’ ceilings. Their system is foolproof. Their coach is a proven winner who gets more out of less than anyone in the game.
And where the HELL is Kansas in this whole discussion? The source mentions Flory Bidunga *leaving* Kansas, but then doesn’t even bother to put them in a tier? The reigning kings of the Big 12, even with the portal hits, are just GONE from the conversation? That’s a war crime against common sense. You think Bill Self, after losing Bidunga, is just going to punt on the season? He’s already cooking up something. He always does.
The Big 12 *is* wide open. The source got that right. But it’s wide open because the talent is fragmented, not because there’s a clear-cut leader. And to pretend that Arizona, with its shiny new pieces, is automatically going to dominate a league that just cannibalized itself, while a proven program like Houston is relegated to “Top 25 caliber” and Kansas is completely ignored, is just pure internet chaos.
I’m telling you now, this isn’t just a prediction. This is a prophecy. The Big 12 is going to be a bloodbath, and the team with the most grit, the most system, the most *dawg*, is going to rise to the top. Not the team with the most 5-stars who are still figuring out how to tie their shoes.
So go ahead, @ me. Tell me I’m wrong. Tell me my takes are cooked. But when Arizona struggles to find consistency, and Houston is once again an absolute menace, don’t say I didn’t warn you. I’m done with the soft takes. I’m done with the lukewarm. This is where the real analysis begins.
Are we really going to pretend that a league gutted by transfers suddenly has a “cut and dry” national title contender, or are we finally going to admit that NIL is making every “way-too-early” prediction irrelevant?
