Macklin Celebrini just got separated from Connor Bedard on paper, and the production gap is too clean to hand-wave as vibes.
Corey Pronman’s annual under-23 ranking for The Athletic dropped with Celebrini alone in Tier 1 as an elite NHL player. Bedard sits at No. 2 in Tier 2, the first name among the projected stars. Matthew Schaefer and Juraj Slafkovský fill out that tier behind him. Pronman is clear about the assignment: “This is a ranking meant to show who I think will have the best NHL careers, not who I would take in a game tomorrow.” Career projection, not tonight’s lineup. On that scale, Celebrini is the one Pronman refuses to put a ceiling on.
I ran the 2025-26 numbers side by side. Celebrini, 19 for most of the year, went 82 games, 45 goals, 70 assists, 115 points, plus-8, 287 shots at 15.7 percent, averaging over 21 minutes. Bedard played 69 games, 30 goals, 45 assists, 75 points, minus-18, 226 shots at 13.3 percent. Bedard missed time and cooled after the injury. Celebrini did not. He posted a true No. 1 center season on a Sharks team still climbing. That is not a narrative. That is a 40-point edge in the same league with more ice and better results.
The Weakness List Came Up Empty
Pronman’s scouting note on Celebrini is the part I keep circling. “Celebrini is already one of the very best players in the NHL. He’s one of the few players I’ve scouted where it’s hard to see any noticeable weakness.” Powerful stride, quick first steps, difficult plays on the move and in tight, a bullet shot from range, high compete, wins battles, projects as a two-way matchup center. Average size at 6-foot, 197. Left shot. Drafted first overall in 2024. Pronman lands it clean: he should be one of the very elite players in the league for the next decade.
Bedard’s write-up is still glowing, and it should be. Elite puck skills, one-on-one beaters, creative through traffic, elite passer, lethal mid-range shot, power-play terror. He competes and does not get pushed around. The caveats sit right there in the same paragraph: small center, not an elite speedster for his size, can stay on the perimeter a bit too much. He projects as a star No. 1 who can lead the league in scoring. That is a hell of a player. It is also a different projection than “no noticeable weakness” and two-way matchup center for a decade.
I have watched enough of both to feel the difference in how defenses load up. Bedard still forces special teams and soft ice to unlock the full package. Celebrini already takes the hard minutes and creates anyway. Career totals through 2025-26 show Bedard ahead on raw counting stats because he has more games, roughly 219 to Celebrini’s 152, 203 points to 178. The per-game and two-way gap is moving the other direction, and Pronman has now stacked two straight U-23 lists with Celebrini on top.
Schaefer and the Rest Are the Noise Floor
Schaefer at No. 3 is the other signal. A defenseman that high under 23 means the Islanders drafted a transition and gap monster who already looked like a star rookie. Slafkovský at four keeps Montreal’s big wing in the star conversation. Leo Carlsson, Logan Cooley, Beckett Sennecke, Ivan Demidov, Adam Fantilli, Michael Misa fill out the next tiers. The board is stacked from the 2022 through 2026 drafts. None of them are in Celebrini’s tier.
The fan split on this was predictable. Sharks accounts treated the No. 1 as validation after the 115-point year. Some Blackhawks voices pointed at Bedard’s injury and supporting cast and said the gap is temporary. Others wanted Bedard higher on pure skill. Fair debate on current value. Pronman is not ranking current value. He is ranking who builds the longer, higher peak.
I am not burying Bedard. He remains a franchise center with highlight-reel hands and a shot that still bends power plays. The 2023 first-overall pick is going to pile up points for a long time. Celebrini, the 2024 first-overall out of the same North Vancouver pipeline, just posted the cleaner full-season body of work and the more complete tool set. When the best independent scout in the business puts one kid alone in the elite tier and the other at the top of the star tier, I listen to the grades.
The next decade of Western Conference hockey is going to run through these two centers more nights than not. Pronman’s list says Celebrini is the one you build the harder matchup around. The 115-point season and the empty weakness column are why I am with him.
