The season still has months before tipoff, and the only scoreboard that matters is a docket. Jeff Borzello’s way-too-early Top 25 landed with Florida at No. 1 and a single question hanging over every ranked roster, and the pattern is brutal: temporary restraining orders in Georgia, California, Oklahoma, Kentucky, New York, Louisiana, and Texas; stays in Tennessee, Ohio, and Colorado; power-conference rules blocking pros from coming back. Rosters are being assembled in courtrooms first.
“Until then, we’ll be paying more attention to courtrooms than basketball courts,” Borzello wrote, and that line is the entire preseason. I keep coming back to it because the hierarchy he published only holds if the injunctions stick.
Florida Stays One Either Way. Everyone Else Is Gambling.
Denzel Aberdeen is the cleanest example. He was a key reserve on Florida’s 2025 national title team, spent last year at Kentucky averaging 13.5 points and better than 36 percent from three, and now wants back in Gainesville. Four seasons in four years makes him ineligible under the current rules. The Colorado decision briefly opened the door, then got stayed. Florida remains No. 1 without him. Aberdeen being cleared, as Borzello put it, “would make it inarguable.”
That is the ceiling conversation in one eligibility fight. Duke has no paperwork mess and still can’t name a starting five: Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer, and five-star Deron Rippey Jr. are fighting for the point, while freshmen scrap for the spot next to Patrick Ngongba II. Illinois is waiting on David Mirkovic after left-foot surgery in early August; he averaged 13.6 points and the estimates have him back near the opener, which matters more for the Nov. 10 trip to Texas Tech than for Fairleigh Dickinson and Penn. Texas is loading up under Sean Miller with freshmen and transfers and asking how fast the newcomers actually hit. Those are basketball questions. Half the top 10 is still a legal one.
The Fifth-Year Lottery Is the Real Bracket
Arizona needs RJ Godfrey, the fifth-year Clemson transfer who got a Georgia injunction that has not been stayed. Tennessee wants Jalen Washington at center via its own lawsuit, but the Court of Appeals stayed the temporary injunction, leaving Miles Rubin or DeWayne Brown II as the fallback. Texas Tech vaulted into the rankings on the backs of Darrion Williams, Donovan Atwell, and Jamichael Stillwell — fifth-year pieces cleared through Texas and Georgia injunctions — and with a healthy JT Toppin that group suddenly looks like a Final Four conversation. Gonzaga is trying to roster Xaivian Lee and Chauncey Wiggins under Georgia and California rulings while Javon Bennett sits after the Ohio stay. Missouri has Mark Mitchell’s Kentucky TRO. Louisville is fighting for Seth Trimble after the Colorado stay. BYU is banking on Jaxon Kohler (12.5 points, 8.9 rebounds, 39 percent from three at Michigan State) via a California TRO to fix the paint.
That is not depth. That is a dozen contenders whose floors and ceilings move with the next hearing date. St. John’s is juggling Keyshawn Hall, Quinn Ellis, and Babacar Sane on the same paperwork carousel. Michigan lost Brandon McCoy to a right ACL on the European trip and is staring at fifth-year options who may not be cleared. The middle of Borzello’s board is a contingency map.
Alabama sits at 16 with a different kind of cloud. Aden Holloway averaged 16.8 points, 3.8 assists, and 43.8 percent from three last season. He was arrested on a felony drug charge around the start of the NCAA tournament, pleaded guilty to first-degree marijuana possession, entered a first-time offender program, and as of July comments from AD Greg Byrne was still working out without full reinstatement. Until that clears, Nate Oats is building without his most reliable shooter.
“In an ideal world, we will have a complete picture of the landscape — and answers to some of these questions — by the time we’re ready for the preseason rankings,” Borzello wrote. Ideal is not the operating word. The four power conferences already passed rules blocking professional athletes from returning, and the SEC version is already under legal attack. Every stay, every TRO, every reinstatement hearing rewrites the projected starting five Borzello listed under each logo.
November Will Sort the Paperwork From the Product
I am ranking the uncertainty itself. Florida can survive Aberdeen’s limbo and still own the top line. Duke’s competition for minutes is the healthy version of chaos. Illinois needs Mirkovic healthy for the nonconference gauntlet. After that, the board is a series of binary outcomes: Godfrey in or out, Washington cleared or not, the Texas Tech trio intact or shredded, Holloway reinstated or sidelined, Kohler eligible or the paint empty. Arkansas will start somewhere between two and four freshmen from the No. 1 class. Houston is hunting a go-to scorer among Dedan Thomas Jr., Mercy Miller, and the rest. Miami is still last in the ACC in three-point attempt rate and share of points from deep. Those are solvable with coaching. The injunctions are not.
The Way-Too-Early Top 25 is useful precisely because it refuses to pretend the picture is clean. Courtrooms first. Practice later. By the time the real preseason rankings drop, half these questions will have hard answers and the other half will still be appeals. Florida’s grip on No. 1 is the only thing that does not require a judge’s signature. Everything else is still motion practice.
