I am looking at a three-leg, anytime touchdown parlay at +3410 on DraftKings for this Week 5 slate, and the underlying target volume dictates the value here far more than the surface-level injury reports. Finding a mathematical edge in touchdown props requires filtering out the noise of a one-week drought or a limited practice designation. The process demands focusing entirely on who commands the football when the field shrinks inside the 20-yard line. This Sunday offers three specific pass-catchers whose utilization metrics create a floor that outpaces their individual betting odds, offering a structural advantage against the books.
Jefferson’s Target Share Erases the Injury Noise
Justin Jefferson currently sits at +170 to find the end zone against the New Orleans Saints. An ankle sprain suffered against Tampa Bay sidelined him for Week 4, and his limited participation in practice from Wednesday through Friday clearly suppresses this number. I am ignoring the practice report because the specific defensive matchup dictates a heavy lean the moment he clears the medical protocol. The Saints have surrendered five touchdowns to opposing receivers through just four games and currently rank in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA against both WR1s and the deep pass.
The core argument for Jefferson relies on an elite target share that operates completely independent of his health status or the game script. He already has 13 receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns in his limited action this season.
As Gilles Gallant of the Action Network noted on their Touchdown Show: “It’s not certain that Justin Jefferson plays in this game — he logged limited practices all week — but if he does, I’m betting on him to score a touchdown. When Jefferson plays, he tends to get at least a 30% target share from whoever is playing quarterback for the Vikings.”
A 30 percent baseline share against a secondary struggling to contain vertical routes establishes an immediate ceiling play. Passing on a +170 tag for a receiver commanding that much of the offense is a mistake, especially in a homecoming spot in Louisiana where the motivational angle aligns perfectly with the raw data.
The Market is Mispricing Isaiah Likely’s Usage
Isaiah Likely exploded for two touchdowns and 78 yards on eight catches in Week 1 against Dallas and has not found the paint since. The market always responds to recency, pushing his number to +220 against the Washington Commanders. The underlying data tells a different story about his actual role in the New York Giants offense. Through four games, Likely has seen 34 targets, securing 22 receptions for 190 yards, while posting a 73.4 overall grade from PFF that ranks 13th among all tight ends.
More importantly, he owns a massive 29 percent target share and has already logged six red-zone targets. The optimal strategy relies entirely on his usage rate rather than the box score from his quiet 66-yard outing against Arizona last Sunday.
Grant Neiffer broke down the pricing discrepancy perfectly for Action Network: “Isaiah Likely hasn’t scored since Week 1 — I don’t care. There could be inclement weather in this game with rain — I don’t care. I just don’t see why a guy who has six red-zone targets and a 29% target share this season is priced this high.”
The math supports the stance. A tight end commanding nearly a third of the passing volume and serving as the primary read inside the 20-yard line possesses a true probability higher than +220 implies. The current pricing reflects a weather narrative and a three-game scoring drought, ignoring the structural reality of how the Giants operate in the high-leverage areas of the field.
Freiermuth’s Goal-Line Role Creates a Mathematical Edge
Pat Freiermuth offers the final piece of the puzzle at +310 against the Indianapolis Colts. The Pittsburgh Steelers tight end has hauled in 14 of his 19 targets for 125 yards through four games, logging a 68.5 percent snap share and finding the end zone in both Week 1 and Week 4. He currently trails only running back Jalen Warren in red-zone targets for Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers drives this offense, and his long-established tendency to target his primary tight end amplifies the volume projection for Freiermuth.
The matchup environment also shifts favorably with Michael Pittman placed on injured reserve, fundamentally altering the possession metrics and potential scoring opportunities in this game. Furthermore, the Steelers are utilizing Freiermuth as the primary ball carrier in their tush-push package, offering a secondary rushing avenue to cash a +310 ticket. Factoring a goal-line rushing role into the projection of a primary receiving target reveals two distinct paths to a touchdown for a player priced north of 3-to-1.
A 29 percent target share for Likely, a 30 percent baseline for Jefferson, and a dual-threat red-zone role for Freiermuth provide the exact mathematical advantages required to attack a +3410 payout. The window to capitalize on these specific pricing misalignments closes at kickoff on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, right before the target volume finally forces the touchdown regression into the box score.
21+. Commentary, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET (in Wisconsin, 1-800-GAMBLE-5).
